Where Are Freight Markets Headed?

Two prominent industry economists recently provided outlooks on the trucking and freight markets at the Women In Trucking Association’s Accelerate! Conference in Dallas, Texas on Nov. 12, 2025. Lee Klaskow, Senior Freight Transportation and Logistics Analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) and Eric Klaskow, Chairman of FTR Transportation Intelligence shared perspectives to help attendees navigate through a challenging economy.

Lee Klaskow began his discussion by providing a key market overview and macro backdrop of what’s going on in the freight markets. Overall, freight transportation peer groups — Bloomberg Intelligence’s Peer Groups involving Carriers, Railroads, Truckload and LTL — have underperformed in the broader market over the past 12 months. He said the trucking peer group has been hardest hit on concerns a rate recovery is being pushed out further by the impact of increased protectionist policies.

Klaskow highlighted that the post-election “animal spirits” have shifted into pessimism, largely driven by tariff concerns and inflationary pressure. There are a number of factors weighing on economic growth and freight demand.

First, the Trump administration tariffs are having a ripple effect on economies and supply chains as they’re likely to be inflationary and will limit the gross domestic product (GDP). In fact, Starks suggested that the Trump tariffs have placed our economy on a dramatic “roller coaster ride."

“This summer, I along with other industry and economy analysts were very pessimistic,” said Starks. “But now things have started to settle down a little bit and the anxiety of the marketplace seems to have calmed significantly. But there remain many factors at play.” Both Klaskow and Starks offered up several key performance indicators and predictions important to supply chains and the economy:

• Probability of a U.S. recession is at 30%, based on consensus.
• The recent de-escalation with China is a step in the right direction.
• Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.3% in April, moderating from 9.1% in June 2022. Tariffs could push inflation higher.
• The ISM Manufacturing Index, the monthly report that tracks the health of the U.S. manufacturing sector, has been in contraction 33 of the past 35 months.
• Industrial economic growth is expected to remain tepid through 2027.

Truckload and LTL Outlook

There are industry concerns that driver supply could be a constraint in any rebound, meaning trucking’s recovery isn’t just about balancing freight demand but also about having enough qualified drivers. Stricter monitoring of areas such as English Language Proficiency, non-domiciled commercial driver's licenses and B1 cabotage may be the spark needed to finally tighten market conditions enough for spot and contractual rates to improve, said Klaskow: “This would bode well for carriers' profitability.”

Starks concurred – offering similar observations from data analysis from FTR Transportation Intelligence.

Klaskow also emphasized that spot rates in the truckload sector are bouncing along the bottom, and offered these highlights:

• The North America spot trucking market has had slack capacity since the extremely tight conditions in 2021.
• Truckstop's Market Demand Index (MDI), has loosened in 3Q25 following three tighter quarters. MDI is a weekly indicator that measures relative supply and demand in the North American spot truckload freight market.
• Capacity has been slow to leave the market and has delayed any significant increase spot rates.
• A more normal peak season and increased regulatory enforcement could bode well for the spot rate recovery, which could help push contract rates higher in 2026.
• Spot truckload rates excluding fuel surcharges are up 3.7% on average in 2025 after rising 0.6% last year following two years of double-digit declines. They are currently 1.5% lower compared to last year.

In addition, Klaskow pointed out the average 2025 spot rates by equipment type: Specialized (+5.2%), Flatbed (+3.2%), Dry-van (+2.1%), and Reefer (+1.9%).

In addition, contract truckload’s market is waiting for spot rates to turn, and offered these observations:

• The weaker spot market has put pressure on contractual rates.
• Truckload contractual rates are down 0.5% on average in 2025 and have declined 17% since 2022 based on DAT data.
• Reefer rates are down the most (by 1.4%), followed by flatbed (-0.4%) and dry-van (+0.5%).
• Tighter spot conditions and a return to normalized demand patterns will be key for contract rate strength.
• Contract rates will not be as volatile as the spot market, which is in the process of rebalancing.
• Average spot-contract spreads contracted 11% to 33 cents from year as of November 2 based on DAT data.
• Contractual rates tend to lag behind the spot market by 6-9 months.

What can we expect to happen in the LTL marketing? “Weak demand and pricing remains rational despite more challenging freight backdrop,” answered Klaskow.

Disciplined rates might not be enough to offset declines in volume, with revenue for the top LTL carriers estimated to fall a median 3.3% in 2025. Carriers are extremely leveraged to pricing (ex-fuel) -- it takes 300 bps of tonnage growth to offset 100 bps in rate declines.

“We expect LTL rates, excluding fuel surcharges, will rise by mid-single digits this year,” said Klaskow.

The industrial environment has yet to recover, with the ISM Manufacturing Index in contraction territory for 33 of the past 35 months. If elevated tariffs stick, they could reduce corporate investment, adding further strains.

LTL revenue finally rose in September after 33 months of declines, increasing 2%, according to the ATA's seasonally adjusted index. Revenue per ton climbed 1.8%, while revenue per shipment fell 1.6%.

Intermodal Outlook

Intermodal spot rates are falling, inline with the trucking market, said Klaskow. In fact, InTek’s All-In 53-Foot Spot Rate Index is down 4.9% on average in 2025, and rates have declined each year from 2022 through 2024. The Index is a market indicator that tracks the average weekly price of domestic intermodal freight, which is comprised of 115 of the highest volume door-to-door 53-foot domestic intermodal freight lanes offered by the Class I railroads.

“Intermodal rates need tighter trucking conditions to move higher,” suggested Klaskow. “We expect a slow gradual improvement in trucking conditions from here.”

He also noted that lower fuel prices can be a headwind for intermodal demand. Prices are down 4.4% on average in 2025 but up 4.1% from last year.

Railroads have a long history of price discipline, looking to raise rates above rail inflation. Railroads also need to mitigate rising costs, especially as it relates to labor inflation and equipment expenses.

The Importance of Monitoring Freight Markets and Their Impact On Trucking

Understanding the trucking market economic outlook is critical because trucking remains the backbone of domestic freight movement, and shifts in this sector directly affect transportation costs and service reliability. Changes in spot and contract rates, driver availability, fuel prices, and carrier capacity can dramatically alter the cost structure for shippers. By tracking indicators such as load-to-truck ratios, carrier operating conditions, and broader economic drivers, companies can better anticipate tightening or loosening capacity and negotiate contracts with greater confidence. This foresight helps organizations manage budgets, optimize mode selection, and avoid being caught off guard by sudden rate spikes or capacity shortages.

Just as importantly, a clear view of the trucking outlook allows businesses to protect service performance and maintain resilience in their supply chains. Leading indicators — like carrier bankruptcies, freight volumes, and regulatory or labor developments — signal potential disruptions that may impact transit times or reduce the pool of reliable carriers. With this intelligence, companies can adjust sourcing strategies, diversify carrier networks, reinforce contingency plans, and ensure they have the right partners in place before market conditions shift. In an industry as cyclical and dynamic as trucking, understanding the economic outlook is essential for making proactive, data-driven decisions that reduce risk and position the organization for stable, long-term success.

Related Articles:

• Economy Factors: Closing In On An Inflection
• Flash Report: A Taxing Time for the U.S. Economy
• How Owner/Operators Can Navigate a Tough Economy
• Top Trucking Concerns: The Economy, Truck Parking, BEVs

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